Hot and dry weather in the past few weeks are fueling wildfires across Oregon. The Lookout fire, in particular, has recently grown and already has some unique impacts related to its location in the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest. Let’s look at the details surrounding the Lookout fire, what these unique impacts are, as well as a look at other wildfires in Oregon, and the upcoming weather. 

The Lookout Wildfire

The OpenSnow Active Fires map is showing the wide swath of wildfires in the state, with the most impactful ones circled.

While the Lookout fire is not the biggest fire in the state, it has recently grown in the past few days due to favorable wildfire conditions (hot, dry, and windy). Additionally, the wildfire is located in the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, affecting long-term research studies in an old growth forest.

The wildfire was started by lightning on August 5th, 2023. It has quickly grown to 215 acres and is actively growing with 0% containment. Wildfire fighting conditions remain difficult because of the steep terrain and dangerous weather leading to the growth of the wildfire. 

A look at the wildfire on Monday morning shows the large amounts of smoke and pyrocumulus clouds developing from the fire's growth. 

This timelapse is a unique look into a wildfire's behavior and interaction with the atmosphere. Let’s take a closer look at this timelapse to explain what is going on.

Wind shear describes how the wind changes speed and/or direction with height. 

These two images are only 18 minutes apart and show the dynamics related to wildfires and how smoke is transported. In the first image on the left, the surface winds are allowing the wildfire to grow and transport smoke vertically into the atmosphere.

The second image on the right shows the rapid growth of the wildfires pyrocumulus cloud within 18 minutes. The pyrocumulus cloud grows and “punches” a hole into the uppermost cirrus clouds (not related to the fire). This creates gravity waves, which are very similar to a raindrop hitting a smooth water surface and perturbing outward, creating a wave. 

The pyrocumulus clouds in the upper part of the atmosphere (~20,000 feet) then transport to the right in the image or the west. The winds in the upper parts of the atmosphere are blowing from the east-to-west at 10-30 mph and causing smoke transport throughout Western Oregon. 

The winds in the middle to the upper part of the atmosphere (15,000 - 25,000 feet) are primarily what control smoke transport, which other parts of the US have experienced this summer.

Impacts Related to the Lookout Fire

While the direct impacts related to the wildfire are burning the old growth forest and causing unhealthy air quality in nearby areas, the location of the wildfire in the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest is causing unique effects. 

The HJ Andrews has been a Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) site since 1980. The research forest has integrated research, outreach and education, and research-management partnerships to investigate forest and stream ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest. This has played a major role in scientific findings and studies since 1980. 

The forest is administered cooperatively by the USDA Forest Service's Pacific Northwest Research Station, Oregon State University, and the Willamette National Forest. 

The Lookout fire is affecting the Forest Service operations and long-term research studies. While wildfire is part of Earth’s natural cycle, the Lookout fire is damaging existing scientific equipment and likely putting an end to or changing several research projects due to the rapid change in the forest.

Other Wildfires in Oregon

There are many ongoing wildfires throughout Oregon as hot and dry weather continues. The largest is the Bedrock fire to the south of the Lookout fire. The Bedrock fire has grown to 19,297 acres since it originated on July 22nd, 2023. The fire is only 20% contained and is playing a large role in the smoke transport shown earlier. 

The Flat fire in southwestern Oregon is still the largest wildfire with 33,874 acres burned since July 15th, 2023. The good news is that the Flat fire is 56% contained and is not producing nearly as much smoke as it has in the past month.  

There are other smaller wildfires throughout Oregon and other parts of the Western US. The greatest concern is the upcoming heat and dry weather for the next week, which could lead to fire growth and more smoke transport. 

Wildfire & Weather Forecast

This week of August 14th, 2023 is expected to see unseasonably warm conditions throughout Oregon and the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures are expected to be widespread in the 90s and 100s, where the National Weather Service has issued Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories, as well as Red Flag Warnings. 

Temperatures will cool to near average (70s and 80s) by the end of the week on Friday, August 18th. This cool down will be caused by Monsoon moisture extending through the Western US. Some moisture via thunderstorms will reach the Cascades, possibly helping wildfire fighting operations. 

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 temperature and precipitation probability outlook from Saturday, August 19th through Wednesday, August 23rd. 

Despite the chances of rain, the moisture will come with a chance for thunderstorms as well, which could lead to more wildfire ignition. A reminder is that the Lookout fire ignited via lightning from thunderstorms, which makes the upcoming forecast something to be wary of. 

Despite cooler temperatures, wildfire conditions will continue to be dangerous throughout Oregon and the PNW for the next several weeks.

To see how wildfire smoke could disrupt your summer adventures, use the OpenSnow smoke map which shows the location of forecasted wildfire smoke across North America and up to 60 hours (2.5 days) into the future. 

Zach Butler